1/28 Thots
thots for tomorrow
weekly value range: 4272-4390 next area above is reclaim of 4460 towards 4500+ but that is an area to consider only if the order flow begins to accept prices above 4420-30
until we break out of the weekly value area range, we still remain RANGE bound
order flow overnight has a shift in bullish development but as of now, still lack of confidence to be accepting > 43350
structural wise we are creating higher lows and price looks like it wants to make a move to test 4390
I would say the structure begins to break down under 4320 and 4300 & if there is confidence to hold us under looks for a retest of 4272
this market is really all about trading the extremes of the range IMO but if i were to look for a pivot, it would be 4340 to lean on notable levels from previous session is 4330, 4340 & 4350
lastly, we have 4361-4364.50 singles above to repair if the order flow begins to gravitate towards and accept above 4360
over 4355 --> 4365 & 4375-80 = areas of resistance
AAPL is the main watcher for tomorrow
If we chip under 162.60 and hold under, that is bearish read for the market
TSLA my target was 820 under 850 which was met AH
this 820 is a major level for TSLA to hold so would see how big the bounce is tomorrow
IMO there remains a lack of confidence to hold the bid for higher prices and I would expect it to carry through going into tomorrow if the open trends > 4340, want to see if it will sustain over 4340 during and after the first 30minutes of the open and the confidence of buyers coming in if we begin to chip under 4340, target is 4330 and 4320 level by level for me, I will provide intraday updates as the day progresses
TLDR
4340 want to lean on (CAN use 4350-55 as well, this is an area of friction)
above: 4350 4365 4375-80, 4390, 4400
below: 4340, 4330, 4320, 4312, 4300
There is a subtle shift in bullish confidence in the tape & structure looks like it want higher
IF we go bid at open > 4340 and accept over 4350, I think the market wants to make a run at 4390, from there watch the interaction
IF structure begins to crack under 4320, I would expect 4300 to be tested followed by 4272
monitor AAPL to hold the bid > 162.60 & TSLA > 820 or 850 for large cap strength
watch the first 30-60minutes to see the confidence in market participants to sustain lower or higher prices i.e is the move faded after the first 30 minutes or are there participants willing to be buying “the dip”
ALL rallies have been faded so far and I would expect it to continue at higher prices unless I start to see participants willing to continue to buy at higher prices like 4380-90 and 4400
My method of trading this has been to observe with these thoughts and levels in mind and wait for an opportunity of confluence with lead market indicators such as TRIN, VIX, ES DOM & Tape, and NQ developments.
will provide updates as the day progresses
not financial advice
good luck